The first batch of EU measures – an asset freeze on Ukraine's former president Viktor Yanukovych and 17 associates – expires in March. The next batch – visa bans and asset freezes on Russian officials linked to Russia's annexation of Crimea – ends in April.
The most painful sanctions – on Russian banks and energy firms, imposed after the "Malaysian Airlines" disaster – end in July.
Member states must agree by consensus to extend their validity.
But if one or more of them break ranks, the sanctions will fall.
One EU source involved in early talks on sanctions renewals told journalists in Brussels this week that Moscow is targeting Budapest, Nicosia, and Rome as its most likely allies.
"The Russians are working intensely through various capitals", the source said, naming the three as its "main" targets. "Normally the renewal of these sanctions was expected to be a no-brainer. But now it doesn't seem so simple, as several countries are pushing for a broader debate on Russian sanctions in March".
A second EU contact told EUobserver: "I would be very surprised if Russia didn't lobby Budapest, Nicosia, or Rome on sanctions. But also Berlin".
They noted that Cyprus and Hungary are spearheading the initiative for a broad sanctions review, adding that Greece, Italy, and Slovakia would support a partial roll-back of sanctions.
Diplomatic sources said the Czech Republic is also wobbly. Great Britain, the Baltic states, Poland, and Sweden are the most hawkish. France and Germany are sitting on the fence for now.
The United States is confident the Russian lobbying will not succeed.
Washington has carefully coordinated its sanctions regime with EU capitals over the past 10 months.
But if the EU lifts sanctions while Russia continues to wage its covert war on Ukraine it could cause a rift in the transatlantic alliance.
