There were a lot of arsons in the history of the world as well as there were many political arsonists, who wanted to change the history by setting fires. We can mention ordinary maniacs obsessed with gaining eternal glory like Herostrates who burned the Ephesus Temple of Artemis, one of the Seven Wonders of the Ancient World. But there are also sophisticated cynics who use devil deeds to show strength, gain power, and expand influence or pure revenge. But they always blame others for setting the political fires while pretending to be the doves of peace. So did Nero, engulfed by the desire to destruct Rome and his enemies, sending secretly trusted people to set fire to the city. And blamed Christians for this. Similarly did Hitler when setting fire to Reichstag in order to make political cleaning and totally takeover power in the Weimar Republic while making creeping coup. In that case Communists were made to be guilty. Political arsonists will never admit to their actions and guilt. Even if it is seen with a naked eye. It was the same in Ukraine. Setting fire to Kiev with the help of Maidan launched a domino effect kindling a fire in somebody's backyard, although savvy EU diplomats should have foreseen that. But it happened otherwise. The myopia of European politicians destabilised Ukraine for good and the mistakes will not be washed even by laying the blame at Russia's door. Because it is obvious that the controlled Ukrainian conflict is the best gift that Putin could have received from the EU. The gift, that was nonchalantly put directly into the cave of the Russian bear waking it from over twenty years of lethargy.
Union mistakes
Let us begin the diagnosis of the Union mistakes from the beginning of the conflict, from the very beginning of the Ukrainian blaze, i.e. from November 2013 and the failure of the EU Eastern Partnership Summit in Vilnius. Contrary to earlier plans, Ukraine had not signed the association agreement what put the EU diplomacy into consternation. The EU had treated it as an insult and had not respected the sovereign choice of the then authorities of Ukraine from the very beginning. The Ukrainian government tried to explain that the Union had not proposed sufficient compensation for the losses that the country would suffer due to the deterioration of trade relations with Russia. But this explanation was not enough. The Union, with its hypersensitivity, treated the suspension of preparing to sign an agreement by Ukraine simply as a severance of diplomatic relations. As drinking from the cup of bitterness has never been easy in Brussels. Usually, the opposition cause fury over there. At least when the citizens of France, the Netherlands or Italy binned the EU constitution. Their opinion had never been respected or accepted and the referendum was repeated until the goal was achieved. In the name of democracy, of course. The summit in Vilnius resulted in failure and the air got filled with the fetor of EU diplomacy. The time for recriminations and waiting for what the future will bring came.
The revolution was announced
And tomorrow brought 'unexpected' twist. Like years ago, crowds of Ukrainians turned out on the streets of Kiev and now famous Maidan square got filled with demonstrators. Clashes, arrivals of politicians from neighbouring countries, combat speeches. The revolution was announced. Everything perfectly staged as during the Orange revolution in 2004, even the same place chosen. Only the leading colour has changed from orange to blue and, horror of horrors, to Bandera's brown-black. And only a naïve observer could believe that these events are just pure coincidence. They are not. After nearly three months of street fighting and mutual provocation the worst happened - shots and killed people. The times of revolutionary chaos began.
The coup
After the shots on the Maidan, Yanukovych's fate was already overruled. The loss of his power was only a matter of time. He could only choose the way how to do it. At first it seemed that the Union realized its mistake based on the fueling the Kiev rebellion. Three foreign ministers of the EU countries forced both sides of the conflict to make an agreement on earlier presidential and parliamentary elections and to return to the Constitution of 2004. In addition to the parties, the agreement was signed by the three ministers and the High Representative of Russia. Unfortunately, the agreement lasted only for a few hours. It was rejected by Maidan, the unconstitutional and not elected body, all in all. Then the reduced Supreme Council dismissed the President, although he was elected in general elections recognized by the OSCE and the European Union. Finally the judges of the constitutional court were dismissed. This way the Constitution of Ukraine was violated and the newly appointed authorities became self-appointed authorities. And so, in the eyes of the world, the classic revolution, coup in the centre of Europe, took place. Thus, Maidan, and his main strength, the Right Sector, chose the radical way of authorities' change. It happened contrary to the Kiev agreement intended for accelerated elections.
Dangerous precedent
After the rejection of the agreement by Maidan, the EU has committed a huge mistake that resulted in current Crimea events. The Union has accepted the upheaval instead of enforcing the parties to obey the signed and consistent with the Constitution commitments. This surprising and unprecedented (for Europe) fact has become the greatest gift that the Union could give to the President of Russia. Only a political dilettante or a naive diplomat could not understand that Putin is not used to not make use of such situations. Especially having in mind the fact that the new Ukrainian authorities advanced against national minorities, especially Russian one, in one of the first legal acts. The reaction of Russia in the Crimea was a result of the broken contract, which the EU blessed together with the USA. The truth is that the EU has started the fire and Russia has made it even worse. These are Ukrainians who made it and they have to accept the consequences now. But the international community thinks, that what happened in Ukraine is a dangerous precedent that can have consequences in the future. In the name of the eternal power struggle between the East and the West, the coup in the heart of Europe was legalized without blenching. A forcible change of authorities elected in legal, democratic elections was accepted. This is a very bad sign to all the extremists in Europe and the World. Because the simple message is that the change of power is possible in any case. If you do not agree with the decisions of authorities, organize a meeting, a maidan, set fire to the centre of the capital, wait for the victims while the world supports that and accepts, even if you are a post-UPA'ian, revisionist or anti-Semitic, like Stepan Bandera followers from the Right Sector of Maidan. Because only global wrestling with Russia is important for the West. Rules do not matter.
Confession of a Bandera follower
And it is not hollow now. The quality of the new Ukrainian government is attested in an interview of the Polish newspaper 'Rzeczpospolita' with Maidan spokesman Andriy Tarasenko. He said, that 'it is nonsense and not true that Bandera followers have made the Volyn massacre and murdered more than 100 thousand Poles during World War II. Of course, Bandera recommended the use of radical methods, but it is necessary to fight an occupant with all the methods after all. Our country was occupied by Germans, Poles, Romanians, Hungarians and Russians. I understand what it is all about, but we are Bandera followers and we cannot abandon our beliefs because of the tactical reasons. A nationalist is a person who seeks to unite all the ethnic lands. It would be fair if all these lands were returned to Ukraine. I am talking about Przemyśl and several other counties. Ukraine's place is not in the Union. We have to get back nuclear weapons. We have our own experts in Ukraine who can do it. The revolution will be over when Janukovych leaves. In order to achieve this, we are ready to use all the methods, even the radical ones. As Bandera did'.
I will not comment on this, as it reveals the true face of Maidan, following the idea of a saying that the end justifies the means. What is more interesting, the interview was made in January, before the first shots were fired (sic!).
Difficult questions
Did the Ukrainian authorities meant such changes? The authorities, who set fire in the state and later accepted the Kiev revolution. Was the association with the Union (not the membership after all) at all costs worth tens of deaths? Is the principle of legality as the essence of democracy not worth more than another tiny war with Russia on this or that sphere of influence? The EU diplomacy will have to answer these and similar, difficult and important questions before it takes the political matches next time. The proverb says that man learns from his mistakes. Does EU diplomacy also? Soon we will see.
Dr. Bogusław Rogalski, Political scientist
ECR Advisor for the international affairs at the European Parliament
