Election forecast by the political scientist Novagrockienė: Tomaševski can make a surprise

2014-04-20, 09:03

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There are three weeks left until the presidential elections. Both public opinion polls and forecasts of political observers indicate that the president will not be elected during the first round of elections, therefore the second round will be necessary. The political scientist Jūratė Novagrockienė anticipates, that there may be surprises during the second round. The political scientist thinks, that namely the leader of the Electoral Action of Poles in Lithuania Valdemar Tomaševski, not ZigmantasBalčytis, is the most likely rival of the second time candidate Dalia Grybauskaitė.

According to Novagrockienė, as shown by the elections to the Seimas of 2012 or by the public opinion polls carried out before elections, studies do not include all the Poles, therefore more people may vote for Tomaševski, as usually Poles and Russians focus on this candidate.

The political scientist is sure that the second round of elections will be needed, as all the previouslymentionedfactorswill lead to thefragmentation of theelectoral votes.

'In order for two people to gather the largest percentage of votes, there is a need for concentration of votes for two candidates, but, in my opinion, it seems that there will be large fragmentationbetween the variouscandidates. Thus, the second round is very likely, ' the political scientist says.

Z. Balčytis and A. Paulauskasare mentioned as an alternative to D. Grybauskaitė who was a new, unknown candidate, a strong leader during the elections in 2009. But today lots of people are disappointed. Despite the opinions of political observers and experts, who see D. Grybauskaitė and Z. Balčytis in the second round, Novagrockienėdoes not rejectthe possibilitythat there may besurprises associated withthe successfuloccurrence of V. Tomaševski.

'I just think that there will be the second round of elections and we do not know at all who is going to be the other candidate fighting with D. Grybauskaitė. That would be a surprise, in a sense, if V. Tomaševski, not Z. Balčytis, would be the other candidate,' Novagrockienė states.

Some political commentators claim that it is expected that part of the electors of Lithuanian nationality, who value the honesty of Tomaševski and the fact, that he is guided by Christian values in his work, will also vote for the leader of the Electoral Action of Poles in Lithuania.

On 21st-31stMarch the market and public opinion research company 'Baltijostyrimai' has carried out a public opinion poll on the request of the informational agency ELTA. According to the poll, 19 percent of respondents have no opinion on whom to vote or said that they do not intend to participate in the presidential elections.

In the view of the political expert LaurasBielinis, the second round of the presidential elections is very likely as in comparison to the previous presidential elections, D. Grybauskaitė is no longer as popular as she was in 2009.

EAPL Press Office
18-04-2014

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