Prof Balžekienė, who recently attended The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) scientists’ gathering, which took place in Shanghai, China, brought insights from the event attended by more than 70 scientists from all over the world.
The UN Environment GEO-7 review, which will be published in 2026, will offer data-driven solutions to UN member states on how to transform energy, food and waste problems and address crises which affect the planet.
The reaching of the goals is almost unrealistic
During the meeting of an international group of scientists in China, global future scenario modelling was presented aligned with three different possible outcomes. One outcome describes a situation in which no significant changes take place (the so-called “business as usual” scenario).
“It is already clear that under the current global policy, none of the UN Sustainable Development Goals, which should be achieved by 2030, will be achieved, nor will international agreements such as the Paris Climate Change Agreement or the Aichi Biodiversity Convention be fulfilled,” says Balžekienė, who is a principal researcher of the research group “Civil Society and Sustainability”.
The scientists’ meeting in Shanghai discussed global change scenarios needed to address the planetary crises. An important outcome of the meeting was the realisation that there are significant differences in cultural, social, and political environments between different regions of the world, and that possible solutions must consider local contexts.
One of the GEO-7 benchmarks is designed to predict which solutions to the climate crisis are appropriate for different regions. The KTU professor is one of the authors writing about the Eastern European region and its specific context for implementing environmental policies and solutions.
High levels of consumption and biodiversity loss are characteristic of Eastern Europe
According to the UN classification, the Eastern European region includes the Baltic States.
“The Eastern European region, which includes Lithuania, is characterised by very low public participation in environmental organisations, high levels of consumption, unsustainable agriculture and rapid biodiversity loss. The search for solutions to these problems will involve technological transformations and changes in the behaviour of the population,” says the KTU researcher, mentioning the changes that would benefit the Lithuanian environment.
The report also puts a strong emphasis on the role of the social sciences in finding solutions to the planetary crises, as until now the UNEP Global Environmental Outlooks have been mainly prepared by the representatives of natural sciences.
The integration of sociology, political science, psychology, and economics is essential for the development of solutions and measures that can have an impact on society and be implemented at a political level.
The next meeting of the scientists preparing the UNEP Global Environment Outlook is scheduled for January 2024, when the results of the modelling of future scenarios will be analysed and the necessary solutions will be further discussed.
