President of the Association of Lithuanian Oil Product Trade Enterprises says that retail prices should shift to a downward trajectory as early as next week if there are no changes in market trends.
"The potential scenarios are rather numerous. Changes [in retail prices] depend on the scale of the fall in those wholesale prices, on the period of their decline or how long they stay on those low levels. Sometimes prices fall, then stay low for a couple of days and then rebound once again. Retail prices are slower to follow the suit or their response is weaker. This time prices have been falling for quite a few days without any significant rebound hence [retail] prices are likely to decrease," Daiva Joksiene told BNS.
Meanwhile, a financial analyst believes that fuel retailers should respond to changes in the wholesale market within several days and crude oil prices should return to growth in the second half of next year.
"I wouldn't say that the time lag is big. Orlen Lietuva responds swiftly as does the retail market. We're talking about the time windows of days, not weeks or months," Tadas Povilauskas, chief analyst with SEB Bankas, told BNS, adding that retailers tended to react faster to increases in the wholesale market than to decreases, which was not unusual.
Prices should remain on the downward path in the next few months, he said, adding that a rebound might be expected in the second half of 2016.
According to the data made available by Orlen Lietuva, Lithuania's sole oil refinery, the wholesale price of diesel fuel fell to 0.826 euros per liter, from 0.878 euros, between Nov. 24 and Dec. 8. The wholesale price of 95 grade gasoline went down to 0.966 euros, from 1.013 euros, between Nov. 30 and Dec. 8.
Meanwhile, Statoil was on Wednesday selling 95 grade gasoline for 1.086 euros per liter, up from 1.085 euros last week and up from 1.049 euros two weeks ago. The price of diesel fuel in this chain last week went up to 0.996 euros, from 0.979 euros two weeks ago, and stayed at the same level on Wednesday.
On Thursday, WTI crude futures for delivery in January eased by 9 cents, or 0.3%, to 37.06 US dollar a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. January Brent crude on London's ICE Futures exchange edged up by 12 cents to 40.25 US dollar a barrel.
